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The authors examined the variability in wintertime cyclone activity and storm tracks and their relation to precipitation over China for the period 1951–2006 using the observational data.Two apparent modes of variability were assumed for the cyclone activity and storm tracks.The first mode describes the oscillation in the strength of the storm tracks in East Asia,which significantly increased since the mid-1980s,whereas the second mode describes a seesaw oscillation in the storm track strength between the Central-Southeast China and northern East Asia.The storm tracks over the Central-Southeast China have increased since the late 1960s.The possible causes for the variation of the cyclone activity and storm tracks are also explored.It is shown that wintertime precipitation,which has increased since the mid-1980s,concentrates in Central-Southeast China.The enhancement may be caused by the first mode of variability of storm tracks,whereas the interannual variability of precipitation may be linked to the second mode of the storm track variability. 相似文献
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Xavier Rodó Mercedes Pascual Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Alexander Gershunov Dáithí A. Stone Filippo Giorgi Peter J. Hudson James Kinter Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias Nils Ch. Stenseth David Alonso Javier García-Serrano Andrew P. Dobson 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):625-640
The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed. 相似文献
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Kostas Glampedakis Nils Andersson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,371(3):1311-1321
We investigate the damping of neutron star r modes due to the presence of a viscous boundary (Ekman) layer at the interface between the crust and the core. Our study is motivated by the possibility that the gravitational wave driven instability of the inertial r modes may become active in rapidly spinning neutron stars, for example, in low-mass X-ray binaries, and the fact that a viscous Ekman layer at the core–crust interface provides an efficient damping mechanism for these oscillations. We review various approaches to the problem and carry out an analytic calculation of the effects due to the Ekman layer for a rigid crust. Our analytic estimates support previous numerical results, and provide further insight into the intricacies of the problem. We add to previous work by discussing the effect that compressibility and composition stratification have on the boundary-layer damping. We show that, while stratification is unimportant for the r-mode problem, composition suppresses the damping rate by about a factor of 2 (depending on the detailed equation of state). 相似文献
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Nils Aall Barricelli 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1982,27(2):179-185
A theory (Barricelli, 1972) developed for the interpretation of planetary axial rotations is here applied to an interpretation of the axial rotations of major asteroids. The interpretation is based on the assumption that also asteroids can have satellite-systems, which may influence the axial rotation of the respective primaries. The reason why smaller asteroids tend to have slower axial rotation than the major ones as an average is discussed. Predictions of the theory can be tested by space-craft exploration of asteroids. 相似文献
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